Profile | Major Works | Resources |
English banker, one of the unsung fathers of the business cycle.
A Manchester banker, John Mills's principal claim to fame is a paper read in December 1867 before the Manchester Statistical Society identifying the periodic phenomenon of the "credit cycle", and a more detailed follow up paper in 1871.
Following the initial suggestions of Langton (1857), Mills set about amassing and plotting data from multiple sources - prices, bank reserves, bullion, interest rates, bankruptcies, pauperism, etc. - to prove that the existence of a ten-year cycle in economic activity was correlated with credit, and 'business mood' - "decennial fits of terror". Identified easy credit, speculative excess and overoptimistic expectations as characteristic of a boom, and argued for the usefulness of the suspension of convertibility in averting the worst effects of a crisis. He did not, however, propose a clear theory of expectations, leaving it to 'occult forces'.
Mills work was highly influential on fellow Mancunian W. Stanley Jevons.
Major Works of John Mills
|
HET
|
Resources on John Mills
|
All rights reserved, Gonçalo L. Fonseca